When considering who will win the 2025 World Series, most people immediately think of the Dodgers. A relatively large percentage of bettors are wagering on them to win the World Series. Offshore sportsbooks have identified them as one of their biggest liabilities, which means that they will be rooting for some other team to win.
While the Dodgers almost surely are the most talented team in baseball, it is important to recognize that talent frequently fails to produce a commensurate level of success. History shows this to be the case, which is why it is important to step back and, before predicting the Dodgers will win the World Series, look at what history teaches us. Ultimately, history shows that extant predispositions to rush to bet on the Dodgers, especially at the current odds, rely on such naive assumptions about the bare significance of talent.
In this article, I will examine three trends, the first of which will encourage me to reject the Dodgers as the best candidate to expect to win it all. The other two trends will invite suggestions that certain other teams might be better candidates. I will argue that, of these other teams, the Phillies are the best option.
Winning Consecutive World Series Titles Is Rare
The first trend to note is that no team has won a World Series twice in a row since the Yankees did it in 2000. That was 25 years ago.
This trend, for me, rules out the Dodgers. It shows that teams can repeatedly build rosters filled with highly able players and still fail to win consecutive titles. The Giants, for example, won three World Series titles in the previous decade but never won in consecutive seasons. Los Angeles, in this decade, has repeatedly had talented rosters. But the fact is that it is so hard to win a World Series in any year that it becomes profoundly improbable to win consecutive World Series titles. The 2023 Dodgers, for example, were extremely talented. They did not even win a playoff game.
Folks think of basketball as being a high-variance sport, but baseball is also high-variance. This is why metrics like xSLG and FIP are so valuable: they show that players can perform well — in the sense that they can, for example, create strong contact against pitches — and still fail to produce tangible results, such as hits or, ultimately, wins.
Regarding 2023, specifically, other teams can get hot. In addition to the best players failing to be as great from one season to the next, different players can attain higher levels of play at the right time. Arizona, as did Philly in 2022, got hot at the right time in 2023, showing that less favored teams should be respected by bettors because many of them have the potential to be the best team in a single month — in October. Let’s emphasize that to win the World Series, you don’t have to be the best team in April or the best-looking team before the season begins. You have to be the best team in October.
At BetOnline, the Dodgers are listed at +225 to win the World Series. This is just ridiculous given the above considerations and given the possibility that key injuries transpire.
Experience and Star Power Matter
Here is the next trend, which points to multiple other teams: three of the last five World Series champions had very recently been in the World Series.
The Dodgers won the World Series in 2020 after losing in 2018. Houston won in 2022 after losing in 2019. The Dodgers just won the World Series after winning it in 2020.
Postseason experience matters. We see this all throughout sports. In the NBA, for example, teams that win it all commonly do so after going through a deep run in a previous season. The Philadelphia Eagles constitute a strong example. Teams benefit from gaining postseason experience before they win the championship.
There are a number of strong teams that have this experience, with examples being Arizona, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. To help narrow things down, let’s consider another trend: four of the last five World Series champions had an MVP player. The Dodgers had Shohei Ohtani. The Astros had Jose Altuve. Atlanta had Freddie Freeman. The 2020 Dodgers had Cody Bellinger. While the most talented team frequently fails to win the World Series, it is beneficial to have some star power.
My Prediction
There are different strong candidates who are, especially relative to the Dodgers, attractively priced.
To be clear, the Yankees are not one of those teams because losing Juan Soto to free agency and losing Gerrit Cole to injury is an insuperably big deal for them. While the Mets are better for having Soto, their pitching is not as good as that of other reasonable candidates. Atlanta is probably the most talented team after the Dodgers, but Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. are not going to look like their characteristically dominant selves until next season, when they will have fully recovered from their respective injuries and regained their form.
Philadelphia, losers of the 2022 World Series and the team that has competed in the most postseason games in the last three years, has the experience, the MVP talent in Bryce Harper, and the overall roster to win it all.
Their starting rotation is absolutely absurd, with Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez. Based on their recent seasons, they can easily combine for a sub-3.50 ERA. Multiple relievers will reliably help Philadelphia protect leads, including Matt Strahm who finished last season with a 1.87 ERA, Jose Alvarado whom the Phillies leaned on in that 2022 postseason run, and Orion Kerkering with his career 2.20 ERA and abundant postseason experience. With support for Bryce Harper in the form of three-time All-Star Trea Turner and others, the Phillies have a complete team that I predict will win this year’s World Series, and that is worth wagering on.
