For savvy bettors, strategically placing bets on MLB underdogs can yield substantial profits. Unlike sports such as football and basketball, which rely on point spreads to balance betting action, MLB underdog betting offers the potential for significant returns.
The crucial element lies in timing your wagers to maximize your chances of success despite the longer odds. We want to provide effective strategies to help you craft your own MLB underdog betting approach. Assessing a variety of factors can help you understand what potential MLB upsets merit consideration.
Nowadays, there is no shortage of baseball betting apps you can use to find odds and make wagers. No matter the app you are using, here are some factors to consider that will help you understand when it’s a good idea to bet on an MLB underdog.
Avoid Underdogs Over +150
Typically, teams with odds greater than +150 as underdogs have lower chances of winning the game. Odds below +150 suggest a more realistic chance for the underdog to secure an upset.
Unless you have compelling statistical evidence to the contrary, it’s advisable to steer clear of teams with odds exceeding +150 when using this approach.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Look beyond conventional win-loss records and earned run average (ERA) statistics when evaluating starting pitchers. Assess their strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio, which indicates whether the pitcher tends to allow more runners on base, and examine their Expected ERA (xERA). This advanced metric considers the quality and quantity of contact made against the pitcher, aiming to minimize the influence of luck. It accounts for factors like the pitcher’s home ballpark tendencies and exceptional defensive plays. For xERA, refrain from betting against any team facing a pitcher ranked in the top 20 in xERA.
Streaky Teams
Discard underdogs on a three-game losing streak and favorites on a three-game winning streak. Momentum can mean a lot in baseball.
Bad teams on a losing streak aren’t a good bet to suddenly beat a quality opponent. Likewise, try to avoid betting against a good team that’s heating up.
Home and Away Splits
Recognize the inherent advantages of playing baseball at home. When a home team is designated as an underdog, it suggests they may be overmatched offensively or facing a superior starting pitcher. Review both home and away records to identify teams that deviate significantly from expected performance levels in home or away games.
Record in One-Run Games
When you examine each MLB team’s record, look for data on each team’s record in one-run games. Underdog teams may experience a slightly greater influence from luck than others, leading to a better-than-expected record in such close contests. While not a decisive factor, this is worth considering when determining which underdog to wager on.
