The NBA offseason always feels like a long layover before the real journey begins. Fans spend the summer dissecting draft picks, debating blockbuster trades, and daydreaming about what the new season might bring.
Now, as tip-off inches closer, early odds for the 2026 NBA Finals are starting to paint a clearer picture of how this story could unfold.
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter as defending champions and the early favorites to go back-to-back, but they’re far from unchallenged. A mix of rising teams, roster shakeups, and unforeseen injuries has shifted the competitive landscape.
The early odds on the Thunder and others offer more than just numbers; they reflect the evolving balance of power in a league that never stops changing.
The Favorites: Thunder Lead the Pack Again
Every season begins with a few teams that sportsbooks and analysts agree have the best shot at the title. This year, that conversation starts, and, for many, ends with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Team to Beat
Fresh off their 2025 championship run, the Thunder enter the new season with all the momentum in the world. Their young core has matured beyond expectations, their chemistry is elite, and they’ve proven they can win under postseason pressure.
That combination makes them the clear frontrunners to repeat, a rare position in today’s parity-driven NBA. If they stay healthy, there’s little reason to believe their window is closing anytime soon.
Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets: Strong Contenders
Right on their heels are two franchises determined to dethrone them. The Cavaliers, despite worries that early-season injuries may affect key players, remain the top pick to emerge from the Eastern Conference. Their balanced roster and deep playoff experience make them a legitimate Finals threat (if they can field a healthy team).
The Nuggets, meanwhile, continue to orbit around Nikola Jokić’s brilliance. They’ve retooled around their superstar with smart veteran signings and key additions designed to support another deep playoff run. Denver knows what it takes to win, and their recent moves show they intend to do it again.
Fans eager to dive deeper into how these early projections are shaping up can explore the full picture with the FanDuel NBA Finals odds, where contenders’ positions reflect every roster move, injury update, and shifting storyline heading into the new season.
Teams on the Rise: Emerging Contenders to Watch
Every season also brings surprises, teams that fly under the radar in October, but surge into contention by spring. Several franchises are already drawing attention as potential disruptors in the 2026 title race.
Orlando Magic: Aggressive and Ambitious
The Magic have transformed from a rebuilding project into a genuine playoff threat. Their bold trade for Desmond Bane signals a win-now mindset, and their young core is poised for a breakout. If their trajectory continues upward, Orlando could quickly become one of the league’s toughest outs.
Minnesota Timberwolves and Atlanta Hawks: Ready to Break Through
Minnesota is another team that feels on the verge of something bigger. Their defensive identity and deep roster give them a real shot at making noise in the postseason.
Atlanta, meanwhile, added much-needed depth and versatility with several key offseason signings. A more balanced roster could push them toward the top tier of the East, especially if their new rotation gels quickly.
These teams may not be favorites today, but early odds rarely tell the whole story. A hot start, a key injury elsewhere, or a breakout season from a young star can turn a dark horse into a contender overnight.
Offseason Moves Shaping the Odds
Behind every odds shift lies a series of front-office decisions. Trades, signings, and roster shakeups during the offseason can dramatically alter a team’s trajectory, and sportsbooks adjust accordingly.
Houston Rockets: A Rollercoaster Summer
The Rockets made one of the offseason’s boldest moves by acquiring Kevin Durant, which initially caused their odds to shorten significantly. However, a season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet changed the equation, tempering expectations and pushing them back down the list. It’s a reminder that even the biggest moves can’t guarantee stability.
Los Angeles Clippers and Lakers: All-In Approaches
The Clippers doubled down on star power by trading for Bradley Beal and Brook Lopez, creating one of the deepest rosters in the league. Still, questions about Kawhi Leonard’s durability loom large.
Across town, the Lakers retooled with the addition of DeAndre Ayton and the continued partnership of Luka Dončić and LeBron James. If their stars can stay healthy and motivated, Los Angeles could reemerge as a serious threat in the West.
San Antonio Spurs: Transitioning Out of a Rebuild
The Spurs’ trade for Kelly Olynyk and other veteran additions signaled a clear shift from development mode to playoff aspirations. With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox leading the charge, San Antonio’s days as a lottery team may be behind them.
Front-office decisions don’t just build rosters; they shape narratives. Those narratives directly influence how oddsmakers view a team’s path to the Finals.
The Injury Factor: How Health Is Shaping the Race
Injuries are the great equalizer in the NBA, capable of reshaping the title picture overnight. This offseason has already delivered major setbacks that will ripple through the season.
The Boston Celtics face a steep climb after Jayson Tatum’s torn Achilles and the departure of several veteran stars. Their window hasn’t closed, but it has narrowed.
Indiana’s path back to contention is equally uncertain. Tyrese Haliburton’s Finals injury and the loss of Myles Turner leave the Pacers scrambling to maintain their momentum. Both situations are stark reminders of how fragile championship aspirations can be.
Health remains the variable that sportsbooks and fans can never fully account for. It’s also one of the most powerful forces behind shifting odds throughout the season.
Beyond the Numbers: What to Watch as the Season Begins
Odds are more than static predictions; they evolve with every game, trade, and injury update. As the season unfolds, watch for early win streaks, breakout performances, and midseason moves that can swing the balance of power in either conference.
To follow those storylines and understand how they’re reshaping the race in real time, keep an eye on the latest NBA news and trends, which track the narratives behind every odds movement and roster shakeup.
A Season Full of Possibilities
The 2025–26 season promises drama from day one. The Thunder may start as favorites, but history shows how quickly things can change. A surprise contender could surge, a superstar could shift the balance with a single performance, or a trade deadline move could rewrite the playoff picture entirely.
Early odds give us a snapshot of expectations, but they’re just the beginning of the story. As the season tips off, the chase for the Larry O’Brien Trophy will once again deliver the kind of twists, turns, and unforgettable moments that make the NBA so compelling.
